Anti-trans politicians more likely to lose elections, research shows

Politicians who use anti-trans rhetoric as part of their US election campaigns are far more likely to lose elections and voter support than those who don’t vent their hate, according to a recently published study.

Not only are anti-trans politicians 61 per cent likely to lose support, but just five per cent of voters said they worry about gender-affirming care in the US.

Figures published by Navigator Research, along with newly released statistics from the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), delved into the response to the attack on trans rights. Hundreds of anti-LGBTQ+ bills, particularly ones focusing on the transgender community, have been passed by state legislatures across the country in the past few years.

The American Civil Liberties Union, which has been tracking the bills since at least 2018, estimates that at least 530 anti-LGBTQ+ pieces of legislation have been proposed in 2024 alone, at least 112 of which target trans healthcare.

This flies in the face of public opinion with nearly two-in-three of Americans supporting non-discrimination protections for all LGBTQ+ people, while 61 per cent said they would not support candidates who wish to or have taken steps to ban healthcare for trans people – including 41 per cent of Republicans.

In addition, 70 per cent believe anti-LGBTQ+ bills have gone too far and fear that politicians are targeting trans people specifically to divide the US and “maintain their political power”.

Former Republican congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen told the HRC: “Intolerance is not a good look on anyone. I remain optimistic that voters will see through this charade and will encourage their elected officials to solve the real problems of America instead of masquerading as moral-police officers.”

If politicians want to gain the popular vote, they’re far more likely to succeed by addressing inflation and the cost of living, with 52 per cent of voters signalling that as the most important issue as they prepare to head to the polls in less than five weeks’ time.

Politicians who stood on an anti-trans platform and failed to get re-elected recently include Republican former Kansas attorney general Derek Schmidt, who launched a campaign against Democratic governor Laura Kelly.

After Kelly vetoed a ban on healthcare for trans youth, Schmidt tried to use it, and trans youth participation in sports, as a wedge issue, but was voted out of office last year. In Kentucky, meanwhile, an anti-trans campaign led by the socially conservative American Principles Project to oust Andy Beshear failed after the Democrat governor was re-elected.

“Voters have routinely rejected candidates who peddle transphobia and try to control their personal health care decisions,” an HRC spokesperson said. “Polling shows widespread American support for equality, Democrats as defenders of young people, and a rejection of anti-transgender rhetoric.”

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